December 15, 2009
By Avudh Panananda
The Nation
The government's performance report on its first year in office, expected to be released next week, is bound to be overshadowed by the looming censure debate. Many just find bad news more alluring than good news.
While opposition lawmakers are drum-ming up a battle cry against the coalition and the red shirts are campaigning hard to oust the government, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is the true target of censure.
Kasit is certainly in the hot seat and his fate hinges on two factors - how thick a skin he has to withstand the grilling and how much pride Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has in protecting his foreign minister for the sake of not losing face.
After the House recess ends, the Pheu Thai Party plans to file a no-confidence motion around January 23 and the censure is likely to take place some 30 days later.
Regardless of rhetoric for an all-out war, the main opposition party and its red-shirt allies are plotting a realistic strategy to undermine the government alliance.
With the economy emerging from its downturn, one does not have to be a rocket scientist to see virtually no chance of forc-ing the government's exit at this juncture.
With the blessing of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the opposition has opted for applying pressure rather than a showdown. For dramatic effect, the red shirts are expected to resume street protests to coin-cide with the censure. But the protests will gear for a protracted fight and not a catalyst for the government's downfall.
The censure motion is being drafted to target individual ministers instead of mak-ing a direct attack on the prime minister.
This is a crafty move to reserve the right to launch another censure at a more oppor-tune time within the parliamentary session next year. Should the main opposition party target Abhisit for censure now, it is unlikely to be able to cause a dent in the govern-ment and cannot grill him or the govern-ment again in the year.
The tentative list for censure targets includes Kasit, Interior Minister Boonjong Wongtrairat, Transport Minister Sopon Saram and Deputy PM Korbsak Sabhavasu.
The list indicates a three-pronged strategy - to isolate and undermine Kasit's credibili-ty to carry on his job, to drive a wedge between the Democrats and the Newin Chidchob faction and to tarnish the govern-ment's clean image by suggesting there are irregularities in the Thai Khemkhaeng proj-ect under Korbsak's supervision.
Given the Newin faction poses a serious threat to Pheu Thai's domination in the Northeast, its top figures such as Boonjong and Sopon will face a fiery grilling.
The planned attack on the Thai Khemkhaeng project is a systematic attempt designed to smear the Democrats with the aim to negate the honest image of the oldest political party.
The highlight of the censure debate is about Kasit, specifically his diplomacy relat-ed to Cambodia.
For Thaksin and Pheu Thai MPs, it will be payback time to settle their old scores with Kasit. The outspoken foreign minister is an ardent critic of Thaksin's leadership style of blurring personal business with diplomacy.
The opposition party suspects Kasit was also involved in plotting the downfall of for-mer foreign minister Noppadon Patama last year. It is ironic Kasit's claim to fame is his stand on Cambodia. And the opposition is determined to focus on this to try to force his exit. The censure move on Kasit will focus on his "inexcusable" and supposedly unexplained role in connection with Thai engineer Sivarak Chutipong, who was con-victed of the spying in Phnom Penh. It remains to be seen if Kasit can wiggle out of his entanglement in the Sivarak case.
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