Thu Nov 19, 2009
By Martin Petty
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thaksin Shinawatra's provocative trip to neighbouring Cambodia last week has stirred up trouble back home in Thailand, but by triggering a nationalist row, the fugitive ex-premier may get more than he bargained for.
Polls show Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's popularity has climbed as a result of his measured response to Thaksin's taunts and his handling of Cambodia's refusal to extradite him to serve a two-year prison sentence for graft.
Some believe the wily billionaire may have badly miscalculated by getting into bed with old foe Cambodia, which could alienate some of his more moderate supporters.
"There's been no gain for Thaksin's popularity and by playing up this situation, this will make him unpopular, even among his supporters," said Thai political scientist Somjai Phagaphasvivat.
"The only way it would have worked is if Abhisit had overreacted, but he's responded carefully and logically and he will become more popular at Thaksin's expense."
The outrage at Thaksin's alliance with Cambodian premier Hun Sen and his meetings in Cambodia with political allies has come mostly from the anti-Thaksin media and the influential "yellow shirts", who staged a mass rally on Sunday to show their contempt, some even calling for the beheading of his henchmen.
Thaksin appears to have gained little from the stage-managed visit to Cambodia although it may be too soon to tell what effect it will have on his support base among the rural poor in the vote-rich north and northeast.
However, his ardent "red shirt" supporters have already declared they will continue to back him and plan to hold their first prolonged rally since April, when protests snowballed into Thailand's worst violence in 17 years.
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That episode caused huge embarrassment for Thailand, which saw its credit ratings downgraded amid concern over the endless cycle of political violence in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy.
Some argue that Thaksin's supporters will stick with him because of what he represents rather than out of simple personal loyalty.
He may be a billionaire, but he has stood up to the old elites in the military, aristocracy and business sector, who they say acted undemocratically to sideline the former premier.
"The Thaksin loyalty is greater than the person -- it's what it all means and what he stands for," said David Streckfuss, a University of Wisconsin historian currently based in the Thaksin stronghold of Khon Khen.
"My impression is this won't backfire, because there's already too much momentum for something that is beyond Thaksin."
Tim Powdrill, an analyst for security consultancy Riskline ApS, said Thaksin's biggest fans were unlikely to see his appointment as Cambodia's economic tsar as unpatriotic, but moderate supporters could be swayed by the nationalism generated by the diplomatic spat.
"The deal doesn't seem likely to cost Thaksin his most loyal support. For them, perhaps, he seems one step closer to returning home and these supporters will surely like the idea of Thaksin thumbing his nose at his domestic enemies," he said.
"However, Thaksin does still risk finding himself on the wrong side of popular nationalism and his hardcore support alone won't be enough to support his ultimate goal of a return."
Regardless of who has gained the upper hand in recent weeks, there is little doubt the political stakes have been raised, with neither side in any mood to compromise and growing prospects of further instability.
"Thaksin is in exile and has nothing to lose. He can take drastic measures, even spark violent confrontation," said Somjai, the Thammasat University political scientist.
"Political tensions are now even more heightened and will remain this way for the foreseeable future."
(Editing by Alan Raybould and Ron Popeski)
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