November 2, 2009
By Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation
THE FIRST of the two hurdles have been overcome for the upcoming Asean-US summit meeting. At the informal Asean foreign ministerial meeting on October 22, they were told the November 15 meeting in Singapore would go for a full 90 minutes, up from the 40 minutes agreed in September at New York. Each leader will now have less than 10 minutes to speak.
The second hurdle is still under negotiation. Asean would like to call the meeting as the First Asean-US Summit. But the US preferred "the Leaders' Meeting". This weekend senior officials from the US and the Philippines will discuss and prepare a joint statement in Manila and settle the title. The Philippines is the country coordinator for Asean-US relations.
Whatever the US and Asean leaders choose to call their inaugural meeting would reveal deep down how they feel towards each other and their future relations. The previous plan would be a one-off summit to mark the three-decade cooperation. It is an open secret that the Asean leaders would like to have a regular and stand-alone summit on a yearly basis with the US leader.
During his presidency, George W Bush met with the Asean leaders three times - in October 2002 in Los Cabos, Mexico; in December 2005 in Busan, Korea and finally in September 2007, in Sydney. But these meetings were tagged on to the Apec meetings and limited to seven Asean members as Cambodia, Laos and Burma are not a part of Apec. This time, all 10 members will take part. Singapore has chosen Shangri-La Hotel as the venue for the summit, different from the Apec meeting.
After Asean's repeated diplomatic overtures to the US State Department and National Security Council, the grouping has lowered its expectation of an annual summit at its year-end meeting akin to the Asean+3 (China, Japan and Korea) to a mere commitment for follow-up meetings in the future. Now the ball is in the US court whether Washington wants to project enthusiasm and enhance its relationship at the highest level. But in the end it would be Obama who would make the difference.
At the G-20 Summit in Pittsburg, Obama told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Surin Pitsuwan, the Asean Secretary-General, that he would like to have a meaningful, substantial and efficient meeting with Asean leaders. "I would like to listen and see what we can do together," Surin quoted Obama as saying.
Apart from Japan, Korea and China, his week-long November trip to Asia would highlight his meeting with Asean and Apec counterparts. Obama will skip Indonesia this time but plans to visit there next summer.
With a new dynamism in US diplomacy and Obama's personal ties with Indonesia, the president would like to give a personal stamp on his presidency with Asean. He plans to invite his Asean counterparts to Washington DC next year. In 2007, his predecessor, George W Bush, also invited the Asean leaders to his Crawford Range, Texas. There has not been any follow-up. Obama will host the Apec meeting in 2011
BALANCING RELATIONS
While Asean is moving closer to the US, the grouping is also mindful of the importance of its relations with other dialogue partners, such as Russia. Abhisit's speech at Cha-am did mention that Asean and Russia are planning the second summit in Vietnam next year. Moscow scooped all the dialogue partners when President Vladimir Putin was invited to attend the inaugural East Asia Summit (EAS) in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 as a guest of the host. Russia was the first major power to express readiness to join EAS. Washington has recently made clear that it would like to be a member of an East Asian community in the future, whatever shape it will take.
The message came right after Senator Richard Lugar proposed the negotiation of an Asean-US free trade agreement (FTA) as part of a comprehensive strategy towards Asean. He reiterated that China, India, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea have already finalised FTAs with Asean and are sharpening their competitive edge over the US in Southeast Asia.
Obviously, at the top on the summit's agenda will be a discussion on the feasibility of an Asean-US FTA and other initiatives that would enhance economic cooperation. Singapore, which was the previous country coordinator of Asean-US relations, is keen to push for a joint study so that details of modalities can be worked out.
In 2005, Asean and the EU established the Asean-EU Vision Group to look into the feasibility of an Asean-EU FTA. The report, delivered in 2007, recommended that the negotiation would be based on a region-to-region approach which recognised and takes into consideration the different levels of economic development and capacity of Asean members.
Asean and the US can build on two important agreements - the Enterprise for Asean Initiative (EAI) in 2002 and Trade and Investment Framework (TIFA) in 2006. Both aim to increase the volume of trade and investment and bring economies on both sides closer. EAI and TIFA will also encourage bilateral and regional liberalisation for achieving free and open trade and investment. The total trade between Asean and US increased from US$161 billion in 2006 to more than US$178 billion in 2008. The total US investment flows to Asean grew from $3.4 billion in 2006 to $6.3 billion in 2007. The US has concluded a free trade agreement with Singapore and is negotiating with Malaysia. Talks on a Thailand-US FTA were discontinued after more than two years of negotiations.
Other items on the agenda will include review of the overall Asean-US dialogue relations and its future directions. Since 2002, the US has provided development assistance to support Asean integration and strengthen the Asean Secretariat. There will be an exchange of views on regional and international issues of common interest. The Burmese situation could be raised under this agenda. The outcome of this week's scheduled visit to Rangoon of Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell, could be brought up including the fund-raising conference for the post-Nargis Cyclone in Bangkok on November.25.
At least an additional $144 million funding is needed for the rehabilitation programme ending next July.
Furthermore, Washington is keen to initiate new cooperation in non-traditional issues, especially climate change, pandemic diseases, water management and energy security. Human rights, rule of law and democracy will also be discussed. The Asean side would continue to seek assurance of continued US engagement at the highest level as it remains the key source of capital, technology and market.
From the Asean side, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who will co-chair the summit with Obama, would be the first to speak. It will be followed by the country coordinator, the Philippines, and the host, Singapore.
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